Linking population-level risk assessment with landscape and habitat models.

Ecological risk assessment at the population level often involves predicting the effects of a particular change in the land-use patterns on the viability of native species. A common method of addressing such questions is modeling the metapopulation dynamics of the species in the landscape. However, the landscape and, as a result, the spatial structure of the metapopulation usually do not remain unchanged, thus the assessment of viability must incorporate the dynamic nature of the landscape. A new link being developed between a metapopulation modeling program (RAMAS) and a landscape dynamics program (LANDIS) will allow the transitional dynamics of the landscape to be incorporated into assessment of viability and threat. This approach combines methods of landscape prediction with those of metapopulation simulation. The link between the landscape model and metapopulation model is provided by statistical models of habitat suitability for the species in focus.